Premier League predictions: Jones Knows thinks City will win the Manchester derby

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Jones Knows is back with Premier League predictions for Sunday’s games…

Manchester City vs Manchester United Sunday 2pm Live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Manchester United are now gruff and difficult to hit. Will that be enough to stop Erling Haaland? Maybe.

However, the match prices look about right to me as City’s hot favorites are at 1/3 with Sky Bet. I have no interest in this, but a specific new market being offered by Sky Bet, centered on player fouls, has sparked my enthusiasm for punting.

Since drubbing 4-0 at Brentford, no team has committed more fouls per 90 minutes on average than Manchester United (13.5), as Erik ten Hag initially resorted to an unexciting, fairly direct style with a background of aggression and aggression in-your-face defense. It’s probably wise management as something had to change stylistically.

United will need to ruffle City players’ feathers to have a chance in this game and if Jack Grealish is picked down the left flank United’s right-back Diogo Dalot’s foul count is worth a try with Sky Bet. Grealish is still actively looking for fouls – not quite as much as in his Aston Villa days, but his average of 2.62 fouls per 90 minutes in a City shirt is still a healthy number. Dalot has committed at least two fouls in four of his last five Premier League starts for United and will want to eliminate Grealish at every opportunity. He is 8/11 with Sky Bet for committing two or more fouls in the game and 9/4 for committing three or more fouls. Both are overpriced.


Leeds vs Aston Villa Sunday 4:30pm Live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Winning a game of football away from home in the Premier League when you’re outside the ‘Big Six’ takes a lot of work. It’s a great achievement. Yes, the sample size is small, but away teams have won just 23 percent of their games this season, a big drop from the average away win percentage of about 35 percent over the past five seasons.

Teams that usually win away are confident and familiar with the structure and tactics of their approach. That’s why I’m scratching my head over how short Aston Villa will win at Leeds. Steven Gerrard’s side are Sky Bet 2/1 for victory despite having won just once in their last eight away Premier League games – a stinking run helped by some very worrying attacking stats.

Only Bournemouth have fewer expected goals than Villa (6.07) this season as Gerrard has still not found a formula for getting the best out of his attacking players. With Lucas Digne and Boubacar Kamara also absent through injury, Gerrard’s hand has been further weakened this weekend. I would be stunned if they left Elland Road with three points and at 4/11 with Sky Bet, Leeds to win this game or draw is a chance winner awaiting if short- tackle quotas.

Sunday, October 2, 4:00 p.m

Kick-off 4:30 p.m


Leicester vs Nottingham Forest Monday 8pm live on Sky Sports

Leicester have already scored 22 goals this season. That’s an achievement.

It is the most goal conceded by a club in the first seven games of a Premier League season. In fact, you have to go back 57 years when the last time a top division club conceded 22 goals in their first seven games (West Ham 65-66 – and they still managed to win the World Cup this season?).

Yet on the defensive performance metrics Nottingham Forest somehow underperforms the Foxes at back as their expected goals are the worst in the Premier League against a tally of 12.97.

So against such a leaky defense, James Maddison should be at the forefront when it comes to promoting this encounter. Maddison has had 11 goals in his last 10 Premier League games since May 11 – only Harry Kane, Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne have produced a stronger performance. Of those eleven involvements, seven were goals, identifying him as Leicester’s most dangerous attacking weapon.

James Maddison of Leicester City celebrates after scoring to make it 1-0 during the Premier League match between Leicester City and Southampton at King Power Stadium on May 22nd 2022 in Leicester, England
Leicester City’s James Maddison celebrates after scoring the 1-0 during the Premier League match between Leicester City and Southampton at the King Power Stadium in May last season

The markets haven’t really caught up with that fact yet, allowing it to go quite thicker than expected. Here you can score 6/1 with Sky Bet if he scores the first goal or 15/8 if he scores anytime.


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