Our team of Pro Pundits, Hall of Famers, and guest contributors will be posting regular articles and team reveals throughout the new season, with only Premium members having access to each one.
Here, Burning Questions co-host Pras reveals who he’s picking from his Gameweek 9 wildcard.
It’s been a weird couple of weeks, with Gameweek 7 being postponed, followed by Blank Gameweek 8. It certainly changed the template as some were forced to use a wildcard and others like me decided to “sag” into Gameweek 8.
With only 51 points in the last round of play, this decision has not yet paid off. But I hope that the subtle but important differences in wildcards – such as Trent Alexander Arnold (£7.4m) and Mohammed Salah (£12.9m) next to it Wilfried Zah (£7.2m), ReeceJames (£6.0m) and JamesMadison (£8.0m) – will help me win back some of the deficit.
So, let’s get straight to the main talking points of my draft.
Picks I consider locks
There are a few picks that are locked in for me and feel self-explanatory. Under Graham Potter, Chelsea’s James now looks more confident starting in the right-back role.
Maddison, Zaha and Aleksandar Mitrovic (£6.9m) also have a sea of blue fittings below and I want to be a part of all of that.
Regardless of their Gameweek 12 blank, yeah Abort (£7.2m) and erling Haland (£12.1m) are two of the top picks so they’ll stay in the team and be benched when the time comes.
In defence, I really like the look kieran trippier (£5.4m) for the games at Brentford and Everton. Given his set-piece duties, he could easily pick up some offensive returns, even during the defensively tougher trips to Fulham and Manchester United.
Finally, for budget enablers, Marc Guehi (£4.3m) with these Crystal Palace lights and Andrew Perira (£4.6m) are the perfect first and second substitutes to fill in for their decent week 12 games against Wolverhampton Wanderers and Leeds United.
choice that I think is logical
Let’s get back to Salah and Alexander-Arnold. One is 35.2% owned, the other 36.1%. In the past four seasons, no one has had to spend time justifying why these two are good picks, but here we are.
First salah. Yes, there is talk of him playing wider and Liverpool in general being in poor form, but what I’m seeing is an expected goals contribution per 90 (xGI/90) of 0.68, which is below last year’s crazy high of 0.86 but remains consistent with 2019/20 and 2018/19 values of 0.63 and 0.74 respectively.
This is although not much is played with Thiago (£5.2m) so his return should help those figures. Also, I see Salah as a top captain in two of the next four game weeks, so I’ll keep him for the more difficult games against Arsenal and Manchester City.
Alexander-Arnold remains the defender with one of the best xGI/90 odds – Pervis Estupinan (£4.5m) and Ivan Perisic (£5.6m) are higher but so is risk of rotation – so that aspect of his game hasn’t changed.
What is worrying is Liverpool’s lack of clean sheets. They have a 1.01 Expected Goals Cleaned Per 90 (NPxGC/90) ratio of 1.01, which while fifth best is no longer at the exceptional level of before.
I hope this reverses soon, especially for the favorable run of matchweeks 12-16 where they play West Ham United (H), Nottingham Forest (a), Leeds (H), Tottenham Hotspur (a) and Southampton (H ) compete. .
Tips I’m not sure about:
goalkeepers
A much-discussed topic during the international break. is Vicente Guaita (£4.5m) nailed down? How many goals will be conceded Nick Pope (£5.2m) keep? Do Chelsea or Liverpool’s doubling down in defense take crucial places in their teams? Alternatively we can go with the Leicester City duo Danny Ward (£4.0m) and Daniel Iversen (£3.9 million)?
Well, the answer to the last question is no. I also think there needs to be some flexibility for a third Liverpool or Chelsea slot – something like Luis Diaz (£8.2m), Darwin Nunez (£8.9m), Raham Sterling (£10.0m) or mason mountain (£7.6m).
So I went with a £4.5m and £4.0m keeper combo, either Guaita and Ward or Evertons Jordan Pickford (£4.5m) and Asmir Begovic (£4.0m). If it gets nailed I can see Guaita having higher scoring potential but Pickford seems safer.
In today’s press conference, Brendan Rodgers told Ward:
“If you concede the goals we have, he will be in the spotlight. But defending is a collective. I support Danny, I know his qualities and I know he will find a more consistent and better level.”
This brings me closer to the Guaita and Ward duo as there is some certainty that the latter can occur.
Gabriel Martinelli (£6.6m) plus third striker spot
Let me say one thing up front: of all the options I’m considering, Martinelli is by far the best. The problem is that he has a gap and I like to be selective about the players I bench. Haaland and Cancelo will already be there, so Martinelli would force a third and he also has Spurs and Liverpool beforehand.
So I can have either Martinelli and Sam Greenwood (£4.3m), which gives me four non-players in Gameweek 12, go with that Leon Bailey (£4.7m) and Dominik Solanke (£5.7m) duo, or go along Harvey Barnes (£6.9million) in place of the Arsenal man.
I’m leaning toward the latter simply because Barnes is an easier return route to Martinelli, who I’ll almost certainly want by gameweek 13. He would be risky as Leicester could switch to a back five soon but I think we’re allowed a wildcard punt.
Also, I think Solanke is a good choice and couldn’t have picked better opponents than Brentford, Leicester, Fulham and Southampton.
My design and future plans
The idea is to go back to the good teams from Gameweek 13. So I plan to move the two Leicester midfielders to Martinelli and an £8m option like Diaz. Bukayo Saka (£7.8m) or Phil Foden (£8.0m).
I might also take Trippier to someone a bit cheaper like Perisic, Gabriel (£5.1m), Aymeric Laporte (£5.8m) or Kyle Walker (£5.0m). This would give me numerous Liverpool, Man City and Arsenal assets to complement Zaha and Mitrovic.
Finally, I’m not against switching Salah in direction either son Heung-min (£11.7m) for matchweeks 10 and 11 if no other moves appeal next week.
Much luck!
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